From Kanfar and Wattenbarger [2012], Well 314 is a shale gas well from Barnett Shale. The well shows linear flow 1/2 followed by a deviation that they considered PSS or BDF, The green data represents data considered to be influenced by liquid loading or partial shut-ins.
Believing PSS exists, the authors presented the following table of results for different types of forecasts (refer to Decline for Unconventional Reservoirs). Arps of course is radially different than the newer models. Excluding Arps, the authors suggested that the differences in the EUE may be due to the fact that BDF is not pronounced.
|
Model |
Abandonment Rate (MscfD) |
EUR (BSCF |
|---|---|---|
|
Arps |
209 |
4.8 |
|
PLE: |
44 |
3.4 |
|
SEPD |
15 |
2.7 |
|
Duong |
7 |
2.9 |
|
LGM |
54 |
3.3 |
Interestingly, this well was also analysed by Hasan et al [2010] who performed both a rates vs time plot, as well as a rate normalized pressure plot vs
. Using the rate normalized pressure plot, they estimated PSS occurred at approximately 225 days (
). Using a specialized line for PSS, they estimated OGIP = 2.74 x 10^9 (or 2.74 Bscf which would suggest that all of the decline models were optimistic).
Using a physics based analytical model (following hand-calculations), they made the following estimates for Well 3
This analysis is compressive as it used both models from Decline for Unconventional Reservoirs , Hyperbolic (Arps) and Flow Regime Identification as well as a linear physics model from Linear Flow Models
Oddly, the work by Abdulal et al [2012], a Wattenbarger cohort presented the same analysis of Well #314 also a Linear Flow Models and obtained an OGIP of 2.5 Bcf (which was slightly different than their other publications of the same year).
References:
-
M. Kanfar & R.A. Wattenbarger, Comparison of Empirical Decline Curve Methods for Shale Wells. SPE Canadian Unconventional Resources Conference held in Calgary, Alberta, Canada, 30 October–1 November 2012.
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Al-Ahmadi, Anas M. Almarzooq, & R. A. Wattenbarger, “Application of Linear Flow Analysis to Shale Gas Wells - Field Cases“, SPE Unconventional Gas Conference held in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA, 23–25 February 2010.
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H. Abdual, S. Lyngra, & R. A. Wattenbarger “A Case Study for the Application of Type Curves for Production DataAnalysis of Shale Gas Wells with Linear Dual Porosity”, SPE Saudi Arabia Section Technical Symposium and Exhibition held in Al-Khobar, Saudi Arabia, 8–11 April 2012.